Prediction evidence

Ma

That Martini Guy ₿

@MartiniGuyYT

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has just hit its highest level since 2004. It’s now around 5.44%. That’s a pretty big move, especially with the 10-year yield also sitting above 5.1%. The bond market is pricing in a very different rate environment as stronger U.S. economic data and renewed inflation concerns push expectations for further Fed hikes higher. What I’m watching here is the longer end of the curve. When 30-year yields keep rising, the pressure doesn’t just stay in the bond market. It feeds into mortgages, corporate borrowing, government financing and the required return investors demand from risk assets. Bitcoin is still attracting institutional demand, but it’s having to compete with increasingly attractive Treasury yields at the same time. I’m watching this closely. If the 30-year continues pushing higher alongside the 10-year, I think it becomes an increasingly important macro headwind for stocks and crypto.