Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Quoting · 23 Sept 2026, 15:56 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Odds Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year have doubled to 40% https://t.co/7DUhL1HOV7

Everyone is getting excited about $100K again. Meanwhile, $BTC is printing a bearish divergence. I’m staying cautious here. https://t.co/rYXmNP1ij8 https://t.co/rS1RmQwC3M

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,030 at 23 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,467 at 24 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 84466.5 / 84030.1 − 1 = +0.5%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Meanwhile, $BTC is printing a bearish divergence.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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