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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

EVERYONE CALLED IT A BEAR MARKET. I called it a bear trap. Now Bitcoin is waking up. $170K is still my target. https://t.co/hYMKfIIQr9

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $84,521 at 23 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,645 at 24 Sept 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 83644.95 / 84521.35 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time