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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 23 Sept 2026, 11:23 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Killa

@KillaXBT

Quoting · 8 Jul 2026, 21:15 UTC · context given to the AI

A dumb bull will always make more money than a smart bear. The markets move in one direction... up. I'd rather be a dumb bull buying the best performing asset after a 50% drawdown than a smart bear trying to squeeze out the last 10–15% of downside... $BTC https://t.co/Uf42RXPPf8

A dumb bull will always make more money than a smart bear. Just remember that… $BTC https://t.co/Sn9qDmSO7N

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,638 at 23 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $83,468 at 24 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 83467.89 / 85637.71 − 1 = -2.5%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Just remember that… $BTC https://t.co/Sn9qDmSO7N”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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