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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Sept 2026, 20:15 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Killa

@KillaXBT

Don't shoot the messenger. Over the next few weeks, I expect $BTC to grind higher before the "retest". https://t.co/W0qlLrDBEZ

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,287 at 22 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $83,583 at 29 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 83582.68 / 86286.98 − 1 = -3.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 7 days (stated in post)
Evidence span: “Over the next few weeks, I expect $BTC to grind higher before the "retest".”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3