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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 22 Sept 2026, 16:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:54 UTC

Peter Schiff

@PeterSchiff

During its last Bitcoin selling spree, Strategy sold 6,948 Bitcoin for approximately $431.8 million in net proceeds, or about $62,150 per Bitcoin. Now he's buying back some of what he sold for over $80K per Bitcoin. It won't be long before he's selling at lower prices again.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,426 at 22 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $84,030 at 23 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 84030.1 / 86426.3 − 1 = -2.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +2.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “During its last Bitcoin selling spree, Strategy sold 6,948 Bitcoin for approximately $431.8 million in net proceeds, or about $62,150 per Bitcoin.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

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