Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,239 at 22 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $85,849 at 23 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
3. r = 85848.88 / 86238.82 − 1 = -0.5%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology