Published 22 Sept 2026, 08:31 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Krzysztof #BTC
@Krzyszt40559764
In reply to · 22 Sept 2026, 08:10 UTC · context given to the AI
There is constant paranoia when it comes to the U.S. stock market about a coming bust, secular bear market and “lost years.” In line with my continuous efforts to make sure we operate more from an execution and evidence standpoint, rather than being overly speculative and paranoid, I’ve built an early warning system to let us know when the secular bear begins. I believe there will still be opportunities even in a secular bear, but during that period, we should operate only as traders and not investors. Investors will fall prey to the “lost years.” Again, it’s better to be prepared for any eventuality and have a framework to identify it, rather than constantly speculate and operate with paranoia. We don’t need to sit around worrying about when it might happen. We just need to know what to look for when it does. BTC has never faced a secular bear market since it's inception yet and seeing that it has never had a bull run in the absence of an SPX expansion, I'm inclined to believe it would do poorly in a secular bear. Waitlist entrants will begin being accepted into the group starting next week.I think we probably won’t see a really long bear market like we had in the past. A deep bear market is still possible, of course, but I don’t think it will last for many years. The reason is that after the 2008 crisis, central banks started printing a lot of money. Look at COVID - we had a massive crash, and just a few months later almost everything was back at ATH. It was similar in 2022. The bear market was deep, but it didn’t last that long before things started to recover. I feel like money will keep losing value faster over time, but at the same time it will become harder to let a long crisis happen. I think we will see deep but relatively short corrections, like 2018, COVID 2020 or 2022, rather than a bear market lasting many years. Of course, this is just my opinion. But if I’m wrong and another long crisis does come, I just hope it happens after BTC reaches $250k, not before.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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