Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $86,557 at 21 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $86,187 at 22 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC.
3. r = 86187.02 / 86557.31 − 1 = -0.4%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology