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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

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Leaderboard / @Nebraskangooner / 2102139496561045678:memecoin:$DOGE

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Sept 2026, 20:54 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Ne

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

$DOGE Nice reaccumulation breakout here. https://t.co/CbAZueoJcx

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first $DOGE price at or after publication, $0.1005 at 21 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $0.09991 at 22 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 0.0999084190344971 / 0.100543210397582 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Memecoins: $DOGE ($DOGE)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$DOGE”
Confidence: 90%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$0.1005

Evaluation price

$0.09991

Move

-0.6%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

geckoterminal

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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