Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $85,968 at 21 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $86,426 at 22 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
3. r = 86426.3 / 85967.89 − 1 = +0.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology