Prediction evidence

unscoredPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Sept 2026, 09:32 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC

Rand Group

@randgroup

In reply to · 21 Sept 2026, 09:30 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Bitcoin surges to $84,000 as $300M in crypto shorts are liquidated in the past hour https://t.co/vESlPXeyu8

@Kalshi_Crypto $100k is closer than we thing https://t.co/H5ac4g8v2O

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

unscored Repeat call within an existing 24h episode

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Repeated same-asset, same-direction calls count once, anchored to the first eligible post

“@BitcoinArchive $100k closer than we think https://t.co/fxngaeGDjV”Repeat21 Sept 2026, 09:15 UTC
“@BitcoinArchive Bears on life support... dont fade the Bitcoin power law https://t.co/SAfEapwvKm”Repeat21 Sept 2026, 09:46 UTC
“@BobLoukas Its ready to fly away https://t.co/IXGaZD86bY”Repeat21 Sept 2026, 12:43 UTC

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@Kalshi_Crypto $100k is closer than we thing https://t.co/H5ac4g8v2O”
Confidence: 90%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3