Skip to content

Leaderboard Tape Arena Token Docs

Loading…

Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Claim profile Invite friends Documentation Terms & risk Privacy X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @TedPillows / 2101958812576145783:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 21 Sept 2026, 08:56 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Te

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC has made its first higher high and also reclaimed the 50W MA. The bottom is now confirmed. https://t.co/MH5CZdYz5s

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $83,727 at 21 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $86,199 at 22 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 86198.79 / 83727 − 1 = +3.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +3.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC has made its first higher high and also reclaimed the 50W MA.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$83,727

Evaluation price

$86,199

Move

+3.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction