Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 19 Sept 2026, 16:16 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

In reply to · 19 Sept 2026, 13:48 UTC · context given to the AI

@MerlijnTrader Watch Japan. Red October is very likely. 12 months bear remember.

@SteviesQuotes I think every pullback is a gift, still most ppl are in cash waiting for a bitcoin price of 50/60K I don't see this happen. Bottom is in up we go

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,813 at 19 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,318 at 20 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 81317.7 / 81813.35 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@SteviesQuotes I think every pullback is a gift, still most ppl are in cash waiting for a bitcoin price of 50/60K I don't see this happen.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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