Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 18 Sept 2026, 11:13 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

SalsaTekila

@SalsaTekila

In reply to · 18 Sept 2026, 11:11 UTC · context given to the AI

@SalsaTekila dare i say

@insiliconot I'm not bullish here I'm actually very cautious especially on ETH but also everything I think this rip could easily slide back down and maybe break a bit lower. Hence you should say... "Salsa bearish?"

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,506 at 18 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,639 at 19 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 2638.6 / 2505.77 − 1 = +5.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -5.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@insiliconot I'm not bullish here I'm actually very cautious especially on ETH but also everything I think this rip could easily slide back down and maybe break a bit lower.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

Source post

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AI interpretation

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