Prediction evidence

In reply to · 17 Sept 2026, 18:09 UTC · context given to the AI

Bitcoin's bear markets have gotten dramatically shorter over time. 2013: 1,182 days to reclaim the high. 2017: 1,080 days. 2021: 847 days. Each cycle sheds time off the last. From 2013 to 2021 the wait shrank by 28%. Now look at the depth. At day 346, those three bears were 69%, 80% and 72% below their highs. Today we are down 38.4%, and the worst print of this entire cycle is 53.1%, set back on day 267. The low also came early. Prior bottoms landed on days 411, 364 and 378. Ours, so far, arrived on day 267. Shorter cycles. Shallower damage. Earlier bottom. Straight-lining the trend puts the recovery somewhere around day 614 to 680, which is the middle of 2027 rather than the 2028 the median implies. Three data points is not a law. But it is the only pattern we have, and it points one way: