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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 16 Sept 2026, 09:02 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC has lost its 50W EMA level. At this point, a drop to $70K-$72K zone is highly likely before any reversal. https://t.co/8NnlD2wQne

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $75,924 at 16 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,394 at 17 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 76394.34 / 75924.04 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time