Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,126 at 15 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $75,993 at 16 Sept 2026, 20:00 UTC.
3. r = 75992.8 / 76126.35 − 1 = -0.2%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology