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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 15 Sept 2026, 08:04 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:59 UTC

SalsaTekila

@SalsaTekila

ETH becomes a good long once Machi is gone. Not because anyone hunts him. It's the same reason nobody wants to buy Saylor's public bag: when a degen on 25x buys nine figures in the open, the market won't give him a free ride. Buyers sit out until he's out.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,476 at 15 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,401 at 16 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 2401.01 / 2476.09 − 1 = -3.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “ETH becomes a good long once Machi is gone.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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