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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 13 Sept 2026, 09:02 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC weekly candle looks really bad. If a weekly close will happen like this, sellers will gain control. https://t.co/mf033Kmapt

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $76,766 at 13 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 7 days horizon, $80,430 at 20 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 80430.01 / 76766.09 − 1 = +4.8%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -4.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time