Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,493 at 13 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,517 at 14 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
3. r = 2517.45 / 2493.25 − 1 = +1.0%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology