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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 12 Sept 2026, 09:15 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC almost pumped to $80,000 yesterday. But it's now back to $77,500, which is the 50W EMA level. If sellers manage to push Bitcoin below $77,000 here, it could cause a dump to $72,000-$73,000. https://t.co/BdYp64uNT3

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,336 at 12 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,766 at 13 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 76766.09 / 77336.03 − 1 = -0.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC almost pumped to $80,000 yesterday.”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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