Published 12 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:17 UTC
Kayne (formerly Penguin)
@ThePenguinXBT
$BTC update 🧪 Yesterday’s move was interesting. I was sidelined throughout, so no win or loss for me. Price has now retraced most of the move back to VAL, giving us a pretty clean rotation. My read is that we could push higher from here toward the $80K–$81K region before seeing a larger rejection. Two paths remain: - The 76k low was a 2 - This is only an A-wave, with the correction still developing. For now, I’m treating BTC as a range: Longs at VAL. Shorts at VAH. That’s the plan until price proves otherwise.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 77098.82 / 77257 − 1 = -0.2%d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrectOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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