Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 Sept 2026, 23:12 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

In reply to · 11 Sept 2026, 18:08 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC nasty upper tail forming on daily candle

Bearish candle - inverted hammer https://t.co/O9MBWCJLYz

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,209 at 12 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,263 at 13 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 77262.85 / 77208.55 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time