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Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

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Leaderboard / @ShardiB2 / 2098393852612628668:ethereum

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 11 Sept 2026, 12:50 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Sh

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

$ETH trying to get the flag ready again https://t.co/FRCef28ZJo

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,510 at 11 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,535 at 12 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 2535.09 / 2509.8 − 1 = +1.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH trying to get the flag ready again https://t.co/FRCef28ZJo”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$2,510

Evaluation price

$2,535

Move

+1.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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