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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 Sept 2026, 15:15 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:38 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$BTC spot demand has fallen to the same level when Bitcoin was trading at $69,000. Either spot buyers need to do the lifting, or the price will inevitably drop to $70,000. https://t.co/qfiuSwMcT2

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,219 at 10 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,692 at 11 Sept 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 77691.97 / 77218.74 − 1 = +0.6%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC spot demand has fallen to the same level when Bitcoin was trading at $69,000.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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