Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 9 Sept 2026, 20:05 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC

Michaël van de Poppe

@CryptoMichNL

To be honest, I don't think that we'll continue to be run upwards (for now). Quite a weak bounce, and we still need to hold $78,000 to continue going up. If this doesn't hold $78,000, this can be one of those hard sweeps on the markets as I'd be willing to be buying anything around $74,000 for #Bitcoin. Those will also be magnificent opportunities for #Altcoins.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,304 at 9 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,239 at 10 Sept 2026, 21:00 UTC.
r = 77239.02 / 78304.44 − 1 = -1.36%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.36% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “If this doesn't hold $78,000, this can be one of those hard sweeps on the markets as I'd be willing to be buying anything around $74,000 for #Bitcoin.”
Confidence: 63%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Prediction evidence

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