Prediction evidence

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Sminston With 👁

@sminston_with

"How much Bitcoin should I own" almost always gets answered in 'number of coins.' The question people are often really asking is what a slice allocated to Bitcoin does to a normal portfolio. So I ran it. Each of the scenarios below has an ordinary 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio. Then each is given a different % slice of BTC, since 2015. All rebalanced quarterly to hold each % target constant. Since 2015, $1 in each became: 0% Bitcoin: $2.79 1%: $3.07 5%: $4.43 10%: $6.76 - - - Look what each slice did relative to its own size. 1% of the portfolio produced 10% more money. 5% produced 59% more. And 10% produced 142% more - 2.4 TIMES the final outcome, with ninety percent of the holdings completely untouched 🤯 Every one of those scenarios punched at least ten times its own weight. That's the case for at LEAST a small allocation - the number doesn't have to be huge to move the needle a LOT. Get some orange in there 🧡 NFA