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Leaderboard / @CryptoJelleNL / 2097658304382046563:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 9 Sept 2026, 12:08 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Cr

Jelle

@CryptoJelleNL

$BTC below the 2-year MA is generally a good time to buy. Still buying more every week. https://t.co/cfkf4fnSSm

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $79,588 at 9 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,869 at 10 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 76869.11 / 79588.15 − 1 = -3.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -3.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC below the 2-year MA is generally a good time to buy.”
Confidence: 95%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$79,588

Evaluation price

$76,869

Move

-3.4%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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