Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 8 Sept 2026, 23:54 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Nebraskangooner

@Nebraskangooner

In reply to · 8 Sept 2026, 23:39 UTC · context given to the AI

@Nebraskangooner You were calling for a drop since $700 if I’m not mistaken.

@302_HKS You're very mistaken. But I did call a small 5-10% drop locally down to the 11ema then said that's a likely spot for BTC and ZEC to bounce

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,449 at 9 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,284 at 10 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 78283.98 / 78449.28 − 1 = -0.2%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “But I did call a small 5-10% drop locally down to the 11ema then said that's a likely spot for BTC and ZEC to bounce”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3