Published 8 Sept 2026, 22:23 UTC · fetched 6 Nov 2026, 14:18 UTC
Sminston With 👁
@sminston_with
Quoting · 3 Sept 2026, 03:04 UTC · context given to the AI
I have to say, River puts out exceptional Bitcoin research. 📚 Fascinatingly, their price implication - derived purely from a proposal that 20-40% of portfolios will allocate 2-4% by 2031 - overlaps uncannily with the power law's 5th–95th percentile band. In ~ 5 years: Upper bound 🟠River = $840k 🔵PL = $837k Lower bound 🟠River = $250k 🔵PL = $279k They have also been an all-around joy from a customer perspective (I'm a regular DCA'er via River). I definitely recommend taking a look at their recent piece discussing capital allocation figures 👇 https://t.co/kD251YnO2nIn reply to · 8 Sept 2026, 22:06 UTC · context given to the AI
Interesting read. Using River's inflow numbers over the next 3-5 years, but accounting for changes in market elasticity over time (MVRV oscillations), I get a range of approx 220k-600k per BTC. https://t.co/shBM3tiC6Z@willywoo 220k sounds a little low, but I'll take your 600k https://t.co/MY5tiScDb1View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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