Skip to content

Home Arena Leaderboard Token sale

Loading…

Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Docs Privacy Terms & risk X ↗

Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @AltcoinSherpa / 2096746949651128368:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Sept 2026, 23:46 UTC · fetched 19 Oct 2026, 13:39 UTC

Al

Altcoin Sherpa

@AltcoinSherpa

bitcoin:native tick tock tick tock...want to see a strong break thru 83k https://t.co/InEtNyfxYu

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,339 at 7 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,092 at 8 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC.
r = 79091.97 / 80339.13 − 1 = -1.55%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.55% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “bitcoin:native tick tock tick tock...want to see a strong break thru 83k https://t.co/InEtNyfxYu”
Confidence: 66%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$80,339

Evaluation price

$79,092

Move

-1.55%

Neutral threshold

±1.00%

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

20 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction