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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 Sept 2026, 12:40 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Most of the upside liquidity for $ETH has been taken out. There's one small cluster around $2,600, which could be taken out next. After that, Ethereum has large long-side liquidity from the $1,800-$2,200 level. There are liquidity clusters around $1,500 too, but I don't think ETH is heading for a new low.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,501 at 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,505 at 7 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 2505.03 / 2500.58 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Most of the upside liquidity for $ETH has been taken out.”
Confidence: 97%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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