Prediction evidence

Ki

Killa

@KillaXBT

You should never try to rationalize irrational markets. I see so many people trying to predict the next “S&P 500 crash” or the next “BTC drop.” Take a look around. The market doesn’t reward the person trying to be rational. And that’s literally because everyone is conditioned to think the exact same way. “Oh, it will eventually cool down a bit.” “Oh, it has to come back down eventually.” BTC doesn’t have to give you your ideal retest. Neither do legacy markets. You would make far more money being a bull and looking for continuation longs once the trend has shifted than trying to rationalize a market that is inherently irrational. The market is designed to exceed expectations. Thats how they build fomo! Rationally speaking, $BTC could test $69–70K. But if we’re speaking from a psychological perspective, we might only get $72–74K, or even just a sweep of our $75K PWL before testing the highs again. All I’m saying is bull cycles tend to have shallow retests. Rather than trying to short the market back down to where you think it should retest, you’re probably better off gradually scaling in with low leverage and DCA’ing into the position. At least, that’s exactly what I would be doing if I wasn’t already exposed.