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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 4 Sept 2026, 11:20 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Jelle

@CryptoJelleNL

First test of the 50-week MA for $BTC since losing it last year. Usually acts as resistance for a while, but once it's reclaimed - the sky is the limit. 👀 https://t.co/xWGSw6KucF

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,221 at 4 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,622 at 5 Sept 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 79621.93 / 81221.19 − 1 = -2.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “First test of the 50-week MA for $BTC since losing it last year.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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