Prediction evidence

Quoting · 30 May 2026, 18:27 UTC · context given to the AI

My thesis about $BTC bottomed at $60k; - Momentum: The Weekly RSI has dropped below 30 only four times in history. The first three instances (January 2015, December 2018, and June 2022) marked definitive macro bottoms. In February 2026, this signal triggered for the fourth time, strongly suggesting the bottom is in. - Time Capitulation: The last two bear markets lasted exactly 364 days from peak to trough. We are currently on day 236 of the current correction, meaning there are only 128 days left to print a new low, if any. While a brief wick to $60k or even $55k is possible, the price is unlikely to spend more than a month below the $60k threshold. - Prior Cycle High Support: In the 2022 cycle, Bitcoin bottomed around $15.5k, briefly dipping below the 2017 peak of $19k for less than two months, a capitulation heavily exacerbated by the FTX collapse. Without a similar black swan event, there is no catalyst to force and sustain the price below the previous cycle high area (around $60k) within the next 128 days. - Market Sentiment: Crypto Twitter has turned into a ghost town. Sentiment is arguably worse than during the COVID-19 or FTX crashes. Engagement is driven mostly by newer accounts, while veterans and OGs have either retired or stepped away. - Confirmation for Leverage Longs: While nothing is certain, historical data points to a high probability that the macro bottom is in. However, before deploying high leverage long positions, I am waiting for a definitive reclaim of the Weekly EMA 21-50 trend, which is currently bearish and has rejected the price on the last two retests. - Conclusion: This reclaim will likely happen in 2027 around the $80k level. Barring a catastrophic black swan event, $60k is the definitive macro bottom. In a worst case liquidation cascade, we might see a brief wick to $55k or $50k, but a drop below $40k is off the table.

In reply to · 3 Sept 2026, 19:28 UTC · context given to the AI

This account called for 50k all of the time! Shame on you https://t.co/KAeuLzY9Ts