Skip to content

Leaderboard Tape Arena Token Docs

Loading…

Mainnet trading opens after on-chain activation and launch checks. Testnet uses test USDC on Base Sepolia; test tokens have no monetary value. Real-money rounds will carry their own terms and risks. Arena is not available to US persons. Questions: legal@rafa.ai

RAFA · Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Claim profile Invite friends Documentation Terms & risk Privacy X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @danheld / 2095580066902089861:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 3 Sept 2026, 18:29 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:56 UTC

da

Dan Held

@danheld

Bitcoin is massively undervalued.

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,268 at 3 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $79,618 at 4 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTC.
r = 79617.93 / 81268.42 − 1 = -2.0%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Bitcoin is massively undervalued.”
Confidence: 87%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$81,268

Evaluation price

$79,618

Move

-2.0%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

10 Nov 2026, 16:12 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction