Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,621 at 3 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $80,974 at 3 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTC.
3. r = 80973.51 / 78621.28 − 1 = +3.0%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -3.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology