Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,393 at 2 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,500 at 3 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
3. r = 2500.44 / 2392.55 − 1 = +4.5%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -4.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology