Published 2 Sept 2026, 12:54 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
Killa
@KillaXBT
It is definitely refreshing being a bull after spending the last 9 months shorting. What is a shame, though, is watching people remain completely fixated on sub-50K bitcoin:native targets. Adaptability is survival. The market does not care what you want to happen. It does not care about your bias, your targets, or the narrative you’ve spent months defending. You react to what is directly in front of you. That is how markets work. Most people are always too late to adapt. They only accept the shift once the move has already happened. You can already see the disbelief setting in after this move higher. People are refusing to accept that the bear market could be over, despite the overwhelming majority of technicals pointing towards a major bottom being in and the trend shifting. At this point, one of the biggest arguments for significantly lower prices is seasonality and the expectation that history must repeat itself exactly. But seasonality is not a law. Eventually, the cycles WILL change. Eventually, the market does something different. I guess you can try to help people see the shift early, but ultimately, retail will be retail. They’ll call it a bear market rally until they’re forced to buy significantly higher.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
r = 78621.28 / 76563.52 − 1 = +2.7%d × r = +2.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correctOnly the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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