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Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Sept 2026, 13:56 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Cheds Trading

@BigCheds

bitcoin:native 4H can be viewed as uncompleted HnS top complex, multiple heads Invalidation at 79k on right shoulder https://t.co/459vnVXwwz

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,044 at 1 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $77,238 at 1 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC.
r = 77238.2 / 78043.64 − 1 = -1.0%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.0% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 4 hours (stated in post)
Evidence span: “bitcoin:native 4H can be viewed as uncompleted HnS top complex, multiple heads”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3