Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,885 at 1 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,713 at 2 Sept 2026, 10:00 UTC.
3. r = 76712.99 / 77885.36 − 1 = -1.5%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.5% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology