Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 1 Sept 2026, 08:33 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 UTC

Davinci Jeremie

@Davincij15

When #Bitcoin hits $1M you won't care if you bought it at $94k or $120k — you'll be glad you bought it period.

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,858 at 1 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $76,804 at 2 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 76803.53 / 77858.36 − 1 = -1.4%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -1.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “When #Bitcoin hits $1M you won't care if you bought it at $94k or $120k — you'll be glad you bought it period.”
Confidence: 90%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3