Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,708 at 1 Sept 2026, 07:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $77,989 at 1 Sept 2026, 11:00 UTC.
3. r = 77989.08 / 78707.97 − 1 = -0.9%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.9% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology