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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Aug 2026, 13:48 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 11:01 UTC

Don’t Follow Shardi B If You Hate Money

@ShardiB2

bitcoin:native Holding on... a break could get us down to 74k, a 200 day test at 72k and hold would be amazing tho, not sure we get it https://t.co/kdwqLvTVZG

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,840 at 31 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,044 at 1 Sept 2026, 14:00 UTC.
r = 78043.64 / 77839.99 − 1 = +0.3%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “bitcoin:native”
Confidence: 92%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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