Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Aug 2026, 12:18 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

Quoting · 30 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · context given to the AI

BREAKING: Bitcoin is projected to NOT hit $50,000 before $100,000 https://t.co/HIDYQiu23e

bitcoin:native daily MACD could soon flip bearish. That doesn't mean Bitcoin will crash to $50,000, but another pump from here is also less likely to happen. My guess is some chop and a drop below $74,000 before any upward continuation. Trade with me: https://t.co/kzZIKQsFwf https://t.co/LAbDMeLXuh https://t.co/EQLH608SNp

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,913 at 31 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $77,969 at 1 Sept 2026, 13:00 UTC.
r = 77968.98 / 77913.38 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “bitcoin:native daily MACD could soon flip bearish.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction