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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 31 Aug 2026, 08:51 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

$ETH tried to break above the $2,550 level but failed again. For now, I think most of Ethereum's moves are done in the short term. Expecting more chop and a small capitulation before reversal. https://t.co/Q1pD2dS8xR

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,446 at 31 Aug 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,448 at 1 Sept 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 2448 / 2446.02 − 1 = +0.1%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$ETH tried to break above the $2,550 level but failed again.”
Confidence: 85%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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