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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

ETHEREUM SLAYED $2,200. NEXT DRAGON: $4,000. The road to $10,000: $1,500. Slayed. $2,200. Slayed. $4,000. In sight. $5,100. On deck. Two of five. Bulls sharpen the sword. https://t.co/VGJreuiIzS

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,481 at 30 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,467 at 31 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 2467.33 / 2481.05 − 1 = -0.6%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.6% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “ETHEREUM SLAYED $2,200.”
Confidence: 99%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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Prediction evidence

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