Loading…

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 30 Aug 2026, 09:18 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 13:48 UTC

Ted

@TedPillows

bitcoin:native is hovering around the $78,000 level. Momentum is weakening a bit, which shows the correction isn't over yet. IMO, BTC will tap the $74,000 zone before it breaks above $81,000 again. https://t.co/FhyWt9IfnR

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,991 at 30 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,499 at 31 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC.
r = 78498.76 / 77991.04 − 1 = +0.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “bitcoin:native is hovering around the $78,000 level.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

Prediction evidence

Source post

How this was scored

AI interpretation

Outcome record

Request a correction