Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $77,558 at 28 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 4 hours horizon, $77,839 at 29 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC.
3. r = 77839.19 / 77558.06 − 1 = +0.4%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.4% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology